Data from the Vietnam Association of Realtors and Realtors (VARS) shows that liquidity in the real estate market tends to decrease markedly, especially compared to the land fever period in the second half of last year and the beginning of the year. this year. Therefore, according to experts, buying a house for investment, especially when using financial leverage, should be considered. Cash flow needs to wait for really safe opportunities in the future after carefully considering macro factors.
Market liquidity decreased
According to VARS, Vietnam's economy has passed the second half of 2022 with clear signs of recovery after the sudden devastation caused by the COVID-19 epidemic in the second half of 2021. GDP in the second quarter of 2022 grew by 7.72% compared to the previous half of 2021. for the same period, is the highest second quarter growth in a decade. Export turnover, FDI disbursement, budget revenue, the number of newly established and re-operated enterprises... all have positive results.
Vietnam's real estate market is considered the most dynamic and dynamic in Asia, maintaining an average growth rate of 15% per year. Real estate is forecasted to have a very positive outlook in the next 20 years due to the low level of urbanization that is taking place strongly, the economy maintains a high growth rate, there is still a lot of room for basic infrastructure. for growth.
However, risks from the risk of inflation on a global scale after the impacts of the COVID-19 epidemic, the Russia-Ukraine conflict causing supply chain disruptions... are still present.
In a recent VARS survey of members who are active real estate brokers, up to 83% of respondents believe that real estate investment should be a tool to deal with inflation. In the complicated and unpredictable macro situation, most of the brokers (90%) believe that apartment prices will increase in the second half of this year. However, only 53% believe that real estate transactions will be active in the near future.
VARS data also shows that the liquidity in the BDDS market is on a clear downward trend, especially compared to the period of land fever in the second half of last year and the beginning of this year. Along with that is the lack of supply in the social housing segment, affordable housing, which is a continuous increase in house prices and has not shown signs of stopping.
Mr. Nguyen Van Dinh - Chairman of VARS said that buying a house for investment, especially when using financial leverage, should be considered. Cash flow needs to wait for really safe opportunities in the future after carefully considering macro factors.
High demand, great price increase pressure
Some experts in the real estate sector believe that the market is going through a period of rebalancing, house prices will be under upward pressure due to rising costs due to inflation, high demand for housing but limited supply.. Meanwhile, liquidity decreased because easy cash flow was no longer available. Investors also tend to give cash flow a break and become more cautious.
Real estate expert Tran Minh said that if these bottlenecks are not removed soon, the market may fall into a long freeze and cause business disruption.
At this stage, it is necessary to have supportive policies so that the market's rebalancing process takes place "soft".
Meanwhile, experts as well as VARS suggested, the State should accelerate the amendment of the law to create an open corridor; Cash flow control needs to be balanced against selective segment support. In addition, VARS believes that the State should create a favorable corridor for the channel to issue bonds and investment trust funds to diversify capital sources; at the same time, take measures to control inflation.
On the side of investors, VARS makes recommendations on the transparent and efficient use of capital, especially from secondary investors; should not participate in the whirlpool of land fever; exchanges seriously do their part...
By Laodong.vn